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San Diego PadresLucas Giolito
#55 · P · 6-6 · 245 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jun 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListLucas Giolito isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 10, 2026
Giolito has been sidelined for the past month due to right elbow inflammation. The veteran hurler resumed throwing in late June and has progressed enough to potentially toss a live session soon. Giolito will likely need a minor-league rehab assignment before he's ready to return to the Padres, so it seems unlikely that he'll be back with the big club before the turn of August.
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
2.5 K
L5 2.6 · L10 2.6 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 2.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%2/6Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 7 games, Lucas Giolito has gone over 2.5 K 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.