Loading…
Seattle MarinersLucas Raley
#20 · RF · 6-3 · 235 lb · 78 games
Stats updated: Jul 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.4 H(×0.85 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season78 games
51%over
40 over · 38 under
High confidence95% CI 40%–62%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 51% | 40/78 | |
| 17% | 13/78 | ||
| 5% | 4/78 | ||
| 1% | 1/78 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%21/36Medium
Away45%19/42Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)53%28/53Medium
1 day27%3/11Low
2 days56%5/9Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brendan Donovan out · Left Groin Strain-0.6 H when he sits
Without (57g)
0.6 H
46% over 0.5
With (21g)
1.2 H
67% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs DET
Aug 5, 2026
24thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
DET pitching allows 7.7 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 113 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Lucas Raley has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 51% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 24th-most H of 30 teams (7.7 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 51%.