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Washington NationalsLuis García
#26 · 1B · 6-1 · 216 lb · 88 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsHot overFireFactor 61/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.8 H(×0.85 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.4 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season88 games
65%over
57 over · 31 under
High confidence95% CI 54%–74%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 65% | 57/88 | |
| 32% | 28/88 | ||
| 10% | 9/88 | ||
| 2% | 2/88 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%30/48Medium
Away68%27/40Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%39/58High
1 day61%14/23Medium
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Curtis Mead out · Left Wrist Fracture+0.4 H when he sits
Without (25g)
1.4 H
80% over 0.5
With (63g)
1.0 H
59% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs CIN
Aug 8, 2026
13thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CIN pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 114 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Luis García has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 65% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.