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New York MetsLuis Robert
#88 · CF · 6-2 · 225 lb · 34 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Cuba
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.8 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
1.1 H(×1.04 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season34 games
59%over
20 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–74%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 59% | 20/34 | |
| 15% | 5/34 | ||
| 6% | 2/34 | ||
| 0% | 0/34 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%12/19Medium
Away53%8/15Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%12/18Medium
1 day50%6/12Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Juan Soto out · Left Calf Strain
Without (21g)
0.8 H
57% over 0.5
With (13g)
0.8 H
62% over 0.5
Mark Vientos out · Right Hand Fracture+0.1 H when he sits
Without (15g)
0.9 H
60% over 0.5
With (19g)
0.7 H
58% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ PIT
Aug 8, 2026
15thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
PIT pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 118 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Luis Robert has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 59% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 15th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citi Field · New York Mets
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 59.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 40.1%
Best Under
BetMGM+150
+0.2% EV
Model vs market (over)+1.8%
Our model puts the over at 61.8% vs the market's no-vig 59.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.