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Texas RangersMacKenzie Gore
#1 · P · 6-2 · 193 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Aug 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.8 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency40neutral
Projection
5.9 K
L5 5.8 · L10 6.4 · med 6.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season24 games
50%over
12 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–69%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 23/24 | ||
| 83% | 20/24 | ||
| 75% | 18/24 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 12/24 | |
| 42% | 10/24 | ||
| 17% | 4/24 | ||
| 17% | 4/24 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away46%6/13Low
Days since last game
3+ days48%11/23Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kyle Higashioka out · Right Forearm Strain+0.3 K when he sits
Without (12g)
6.0 K
42% over 5.5
With (12g)
5.7 K
58% over 5.5
Michael Helman out · Right Hand Fracture+1.3 K when he sits
Without (21g)
6.0 K
52% over 5.5
With (3g)
4.7 K
33% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, MacKenzie Gore has gone over 5.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Globe Life Field · Texas Rangers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 5.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 43.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 56.9%
Best Over
FanDuel+120
-5.2% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-154
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+8.4%
Our model puts the over at 51.5% vs the market's no-vig 43.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (6 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.