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New York MetsMark Vientos
#27 · 1B · 6-3 · 185 lb · 67 games
Stats updated: Jul 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListMark Vientos isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Hand Fracture
- Est. return:
- Aug 25, 2026
Vientos was struck by a 92 mph sinker thrown by Michael Wacha in the second inning of Thursday's game versus the Royals, and imaging revealed the unfortunate news. He will likely be sidelined until sometime in August, though the Mets have yet to divulge a timeline for the infielder. Vientos has been used mainly in a short-side platoon at first base over the past five weeks.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.6 H(×0.98 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season67 games
54%over
36 over · 31 under
High confidence95% CI 42%–65%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 54% | 36/67 | |
| 18% | 12/67 | ||
| 1% | 1/67 | ||
| 0% | 0/67 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home52%16/31Medium
Away56%20/36Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)54%25/46Medium
1 day57%8/14Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Juan Soto out · Left Calf Strain-0.2 H when he sits
Without (17g)
0.6 H
41% over 0.5
With (50g)
0.8 H
58% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ PIT
Aug 8, 2026
15thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
PIT pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 118 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mark Vientos has gone over 0.5 H 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 54% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 15th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citi Field · New York Mets
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.