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San Francisco GiantsMatt Chapman
#26 · 3B · 6-1 · 220 lb · 83 games
Stats updated: Jun 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListMatt Chapman isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Abdomen Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The transaction clears a spot on the 40-man roster for the addition of Turner Hill. Chapman underwent season-ending hernia surgery earlier this week but should be ready to go for the start of spring training.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.5 H(×0.82 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season83 games
54%over
45 over · 38 under
High confidence95% CI 44%–65%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 54% | 45/83 | |
| 27% | 22/83 | ||
| 5% | 4/83 | ||
| 1% | 1/83 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home59%23/39Medium
Away50%22/44Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)58%38/65High
1 day38%6/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Willy Adames out · Left Elbow Sprain+0.1 H when he sits
Without (4g)
1.0 H
25% over 0.5
With (79g)
0.9 H
56% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 22, 2026
8thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIN pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 157 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Matt Chapman has gone over 0.5 H 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 54% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 8th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.