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Miami MarlinsMax Meyer
#23 · P · 6-0 · 196 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Jul 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 6.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListMax Meyer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Neck Strain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Meyer landed on the 15-day injured list just after the All-Star break because of a neck strain. He resumed throwing earlier this month in a last-ditch effort to make a late-season return, but the decision has been made to shut the right-hander down. Meyer will undergo further evaluation before the next steps of his rehab are determined, but it seems at this juncture that the 27-year-old should be ready to roll by spring training. The righty will finish the 2026 season with a 2.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 121:41 K:BB over a career-high 111 innings.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency59neutral
Projection
5.6 K
L5 5.2 · L10 6.1 · med 5.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 5.0 · ceil 7.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 20/20 | ||
| 100% | 20/20 | ||
| 90% | 18/20 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 35% | 7/20 | ||
| 20% | 4/20 | ||
| 10% | 2/20 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%10/19Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Owen Caissie out · Right Back Fracture-0.5 K when he sits
Without (3g)
5.7 K
33% over 5.5
With (17g)
6.1 K
53% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Max Meyer has gone over 5.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.