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Detroit TigersMaxwell Clark
#15 · CF · 5-11 · 205 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Sep 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsHot overFireFactor 57/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
1.1 H(×1.00 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
90%over
9 over · 1 under
Medium confidence95% CI 60%–98%Last 2020 games
80%over
16 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 58%–92%Season46 games
70%over
32 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 55%–81%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 70% | 32/46 | |
| 22% | 10/46 | ||
| 9% | 4/46 | ||
| 0% | 0/46 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home72%13/18Medium
Away68%19/28Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)74%25/34Medium
1 day60%6/10Low
Next matchup — vs PIT
Sep 25, 2026
19thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
PIT pitching allows 8.0 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 159 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Maxwell Clark has gone over 0.5 H 9 of 10 decided times (90%) — versus 70% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 19th-most H of 30 teams (8.0 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 70%.