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Minnesota TwinsMcLean Abel
#20 · P · 6-5 · 190 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.8 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
6.2 K
L5 5.8 · L10 5.8 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.6 · ceil 7.6
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 4/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%2/3Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 4 games, McLean Abel has gone over 5.5 K 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Target Field · Minnesota Twins
neutral (runs ×0.99, HR ×0.98)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.