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Houston AstrosMichael Burrows
#50 · P · 6-1 · 200 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Jul 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 14/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)72supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
3.5 K
L5 3.0 · L10 3.3 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2018 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Season18 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 18/18 | ||
| 94% | 17/18 | ||
| 89% | 16/18 | ||
| 3.5Current | 44% | 8/18 | |
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 33% | 6/18 | ||
| 11% | 2/18 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days41%7/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Carlos Correa out · Left Ankle Surgery-2.0 K when he sits
Without (12g)
3.5 K
33% over 3.5
With (6g)
5.5 K
67% over 3.5
Brice Matthews out · Left Knee Sprain+0.2 K when he sits
Without (3g)
4.3 K
33% over 3.5
With (15g)
4.1 K
47% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Burrows has gone over 3.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 44% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Daikin Park · Houston Astros
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.