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Atlanta BravesMichael Harris
#23 · CF · 5-11 · 195 lb · 101 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 1.2 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsFrozen underFireFactor 78/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.3 H(×0.94 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 0.9 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season101 games
33%over
33 over · 68 under
High confidence95% CI 24%–42%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 70/101 | ||
| 1.5Current | 33% | 33/101 | |
| 12% | 12/101 | ||
| 2% | 2/101 | ||
| 0% | 0/101 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home32%16/50Medium
Away33%17/51Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)31%24/78High
1 day40%6/15Medium
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — @ NYY
Aug 8, 2026
28thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
NYY pitching allows 7.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Harris has gone over 1.5 H 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 33% across the full season. NYY has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 28th-most H of 30 teams (7.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Truist Park · Atlanta Braves
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.01)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 1.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 34.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 65.8%
Best Over
BetMGM+175
-5.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-233
-6.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-3.6%
Our model puts the over at 30.7% vs the market's no-vig 34.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.