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Kansas City RoyalsMitch Spence
#54 · P · 6-1 · 185 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Jun 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.0 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMitch Spence isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Undisclosed Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 4, 2026
Spence's move to the IL represents yet another hit to the Royals' starting pitching depth, as the organization has already lost Cole Ragans, Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert and Ben Kudrna to season-ending elbow surgeries. The 28-year-old righty has been part of the Royals' 40-man roster throughout the 2026 campaign, logging a 5.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 16 starts with Omaha and yielding 22 earned runs in 9.1 innings over three appearances at the big-league level.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
2.0 K
L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.4 · ceil 2.6
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 1.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 3 games, Mitch Spence has gone over 1.5 K 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.