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Washington NationalsMitchell Parker
#70 · P · 6-4 · 239 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Jun 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.5 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListMitchell Parker isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2027
Parker moved to the 60-day IL at the start of the month after being diagnosed with a Grade 3 UCL sprain, and the procedure will officially keep him out for the remainder of 2026 and most, if not all, of the 2027 campaign, as well.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.4 K
L5 1.2 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season22 games
50%over
11 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–69%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 16/22 | ||
| 1.5Current | 50% | 11/22 | |
| 14% | 3/22 | ||
| 9% | 2/22 | ||
| 9% | 2/22 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%4/10Low
Away58%7/12Low
Days since last game
1 day33%1/3Low
2 days63%5/8Low
3+ days40%4/10Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Mitchell Parker has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.