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Pittsburgh PiratesOneil Cruz
#15 · CF · 6-7 · 248 lb · 61 games
Stats updated: Jun 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListOneil Cruz isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hand Fracture
- Est. return:
- Aug 7, 2026
Cruz is finally trending in the right direction as he continues rehabbing a fractured left hand. The Pirates anticipate the center fielder getting in some live at-bats later this week or early next week before heading out on a rehab assignment shortly thereafter. Cruz is eligible to return from the 60-day injured list Aug. 7, and he could be ready to go on or around that date if all goes well. Jake Mangum has been filling in as the Pirates' everyday center fielder since Cruz went down, but he will revert to fourth-outfielder duties once Cruz is back in the fold.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.8 H(×0.95 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season61 games
69%over
42 over · 19 under
High confidence95% CI 56%–79%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 69% | 42/61 | |
| 30% | 18/61 | ||
| 8% | 5/61 | ||
| 2% | 1/61 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home72%23/32Medium
Away66%19/29Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)64%32/50Medium
1 day88%7/8Medium
2 days100%2/2Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Konnor Griffin out · Left Finger Strain-0.1 H when he sits
Without (14g)
1.0 H
57% over 0.5
With (47g)
1.1 H
72% over 0.5
Ryan O'Hearn out · Left Quadriceps Strain-0.1 H when he sits
Without (14g)
1.0 H
64% over 0.5
With (47g)
1.1 H
70% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs NYM
Aug 8, 2026
17thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
NYM pitching allows 8.1 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Oneil Cruz has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 69% across the full season. NYM has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 17th-most H of 30 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 69%.