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Toronto Blue JaysPatrick Corbin
#46 · P · 6-4 · 225 lb · 19 games
Stats updated: Jul 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.3 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListPatrick Corbin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Strain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Corbin was placed on the shelf July 23 due to a left teres major strain and has yet to start up a throwing program more than six weeks later. Even if Corbin turns a corner in his recovery in the next week or two, he doesn't look like he'll have enough time to build back up even for a relief role. The 37-year-old lefty looks set to finish the 2026 campaign with a 3-4 record and one save to go with a 5.51 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 63:25 K:BB across 80 innings over 19 appearances (15 starts) with Toronto. Corbin will be headed for free agency this winter, and if he wants to keep his career going, he'll likely have to settle for a minor-league deal.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)74supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency17argues against it
Projection
2.8 K(×0.92 context)
L5 3.2 · L10 3.1 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.6 · ceil 4.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2019 games
42%over
8 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–64%Season19 games
42%over
8 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–64%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 19/19 | ||
| 79% | 15/19 | ||
| 74% | 14/19 | ||
| 3.5Current | 42% | 8/19 | |
| 21% | 4/19 | ||
| 11% | 2/19 | ||
| 5% | 1/19 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%4/10Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%8/18Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Patrick Corbin has gone over 3.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.