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Cleveland GuardiansPeyton Pallette
P · 6-1 · 190 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: May 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 36/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)92supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.2 K
L5 1.4 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2016 games
38%over
6 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%Season16 games
38%over
6 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 14/16 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 6/16 | |
| 13% | 2/16 | ||
| 0% | 0/16 | ||
| 0% | 0/16 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away13%1/8Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day0%0/3Low
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days50%4/8Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Peyton Pallette has gone over 1.5 K 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 38% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Progressive Field · Cleveland Guardians
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.