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New York MetsRichard Lovelady
#55 · P · 6-0 · 185 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Jun 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.8 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRichard Lovelady isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Triceps Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 28, 2026
The Nationals haven't provided an update on Lovelady's status over the past week and a half, but assuming he hasn't suffered any setbacks since he began playing catch, he could be ready to get back on a mound following the All-Star break. Before being deactivated, Lovelady had been a key piece in the Washington bullpen, notching one wins, four saves and nine holds across his 22 relief appearances with the club.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.6 K
L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season33 games
61%over
20 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 61% | 20/33 | |
| 18% | 6/33 | ||
| 3% | 1/33 | ||
| 0% | 0/33 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home74%14/19Medium
Away43%6/14Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%5/10Low
1 day100%6/6Medium
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Juan Soto out · Left Calf Strain
Without (8g)
0.9 K
63% over 0.5
With (25g)
0.8 K
60% over 0.5
Mark Vientos out · Right Hand Fracture+0.2 K when he sits
Without (4g)
1.0 K
75% over 0.5
With (29g)
0.8 K
59% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Richard Lovelady has gone over 0.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 61% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citi Field · New York Mets
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.