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Baltimore OriolesRyan Helsley
#21 · P · 6-2 · 235 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jun 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRyan Helsley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 29, 2026
Helsley has made two separate trips to the injured list this season with right elbow trouble. He was shut down for nearly a month this time around, so it will take him some time to get ramped back up. Helsley was shifted to the 60-day IL earlier this month and is ineligible for activation until Aug. 29.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.2 K
L5 1.2 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.2 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 13/17 | ||
| 1.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 6% | 1/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day33%2/6Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days40%2/5Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Adley Rutschman out · Left Wrist Inflammation+0.2 K when he sits
Without (10g)
1.3 K
50% over 1.5
With (7g)
1.1 K
29% over 1.5
Samuel Basallo out · Right Shoulder Inflammation-0.3 K when he sits
Without (3g)
1.0 K
33% over 1.5
With (14g)
1.3 K
43% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Ryan Helsley has gone over 1.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 41% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.