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Baltimore OriolesRyan Helsley
#21 · P · 6-2 · 235 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jun 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRyan Helsley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Helsley has been working his way back from right elbow inflammation that forced him onto the injured list in late June, but he hasn't pitched in a rehab game at Triple-A Norfolk since last Saturday. With his progress stalling, the Orioles have officially now shifted their focus to getting the 32-year-old ready for 2027. He'll finish 2026 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.43 WHIP alongside a 21:9 K:BB across 15.1 innings.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.2 K(×1.08 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.2 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 13/17 | ||
| 1.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 6% | 1/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day33%2/6Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days40%2/5Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jackson Holliday out · Left Wrist Inflammation
Without (12g)
1.3 K
42% over 1.5
With (5g)
1.2 K
40% over 1.5
Tyler O'Neill out · Right Shoulder Strain
Without (8g)
1.3 K
50% over 1.5
With (9g)
1.2 K
33% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Ryan Helsley has gone over 1.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 41% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.