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Baltimore OriolesRyan Mountcastle
#6 · 1B · 6-3 · 230 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Apr 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRyan Mountcastle isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Oblique Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 21, 2026
Mountcastle, who has not played since April 11, will miss even more time after straining his oblique prior to his first rehab game. Orioles general manager Mike Elias said they "can't expect him back anytime soon." The 29-year-old is now unlikely to play again this season after registering just eight games played from late March to early April.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.7 H(×1.08 context)
L5 0.7 · L10 0.7 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — @ TEX
Aug 7, 2026
10thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TEX pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 3 games, Ryan Mountcastle has gone over 0.5 H 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. TEX has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 10th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.