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Baltimore OriolesRyan Mountcastle
#6 · 1B · 6-3 · 230 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Apr 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRyan Mountcastle isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Oblique Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 25, 2026
Mountcastle initially went down with a left foot fracture in mid-April, but it's an oblique strain he suffered in late July that's been the more recent cause of his continued absence. A return before the end of the month remains possible, but even if that happens Mountcastle's role could be relatively limited.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.7 H(×1.02 context)
L5 0.7 · L10 0.7 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs TOR
Sep 22, 2026
24thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TOR pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 157 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Ryan Mountcastle has gone over 0.5 H 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. TOR has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 24th-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.