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Pittsburgh PiratesRyan O'Hearn Walks
Stats updated: Jul 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Ryan O'Hearn has gone over 0.5 BB in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Linepays more
Walks · season avg 0.3 BB · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListRyan O'Hearn isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Quadriceps Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 18, 2026
O'Hearn had to be helped off the field Friday after tweaking his quad while running to first base, and he's expected to remain on the shelf for roughly 6-to-8 weeks after being diagnosed with a strain. His initial timeline leaves room for him to return during the final weeks of the regular season, but the Pirates could elect to keep him out for the rest of the year depending on where they sit in the race for a postseason berth when he gets close to being fully healthy. Until then, Jacob Gonzalez figures to see more time at first base, and Rafael Flores (concussion) will come off the IL to fill the open roster spot.
Verdict
vs 0.5 BBWalksNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 32% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)30argues against it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.4 BB(×1.10 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season90 games
29%over
26 over · 64 under
High confidence95% CI 21%–39%Alternate lines — Walks (BB)
BB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 29% | 26/90 | |
| 3% | 3/90 | ||
| 1% | 1/90 | ||
| 0% | 0/90 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 BB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home28%13/47High
Away30%13/43Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)32%21/65High
1 day18%3/17Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days0%0/2Low
With a teammate out
How this BB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Oneil Cruz out · Left Hand Fracture-0.2 BB when he sits
Without (47g)
0.2 BB
17% over 0.5
With (43g)
0.4 BB
42% over 0.5
Konnor Griffin out · Left Finger Strain-0.2 BB when he sits
Without (48g)
0.2 BB
19% over 0.5
With (42g)
0.5 BB
40% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs NYM
Aug 8, 2026
11thof 30 in BB allowed to hitters
NYM pitching allows 3.5 BB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ryan O'Hearn has gone over 0.5 BB 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 29% across the full season. NYM has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 11th-most BB of 30 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game BB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 0.5 BB- No-vig fair (over)
- 33.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 66.4%
Best Under
DraftKings-250
-7.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-1.7%
Our model puts the over at 31.8% vs the market's no-vig 33.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Walks (BB)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 BB). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.
More Ryan O'Hearn research
Ryan O'Hearn — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
O'Hearn Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
O'Hearn Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
O'Hearn RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
O'Hearn Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.