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Chicago CubsRyan Rolison
#33 · P · 6-2 · 213 lb · 41 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 37/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)91supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 K
L5 1.2 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season41 games
37%over
15 over · 26 under
Medium confidence95% CI 24%–52%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 27/41 | ||
| 1.5Current | 37% | 15/41 | |
| 10% | 4/41 | ||
| 0% | 0/41 | ||
| 0% | 0/41 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%8/19Medium
Away32%7/22Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)43%3/7Low
1 day50%5/10Low
2 days29%4/14Medium
3+ days33%3/9Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Ryan Rolison has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 37% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 37%.