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San Diego PadresSamad Taylor
#0 · LF · 5-8 · 160 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Jul 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.2 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListSamad Taylor isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Oblique Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 10, 2026
Taylor has been sidelined since early July due to a right oblique strain. His timeline for a return remains unclear, though he'll likely need a minor-league rehab assignment before being activated due to the length of his absence from game action. Taylor had been providing a spark for San Diego prior to getting hurt, slashing .330/.410/.398 with one home run, 11 RBI, 14 runs and six stolen bases over 26 contests.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.0 H(×0.89 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season22 games
27%over
6 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 13%–48%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18/22 | ||
| 1.5Current | 27% | 6/22 | |
| 14% | 3/22 | ||
| 0% | 0/22 | ||
| 0% | 0/22 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home27%3/11Low
Away27%3/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%5/15Medium
1 day20%1/5Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Miguel Andujar out · Right Wrist Fracture+0.1 H when he sits
Without (10g)
1.3 H
20% over 1.5
With (12g)
1.2 H
33% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs HOU
Aug 8, 2026
22ndof 30 in H allowed to hitters
HOU pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Samad Taylor has gone over 1.5 H 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 27% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 22nd-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 27%.