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Miami MarlinsSandy Alcantara
#22 · P · 6-5 · 200 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Aug 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Warm overFireFactor 29/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency41neutral
Projection
5.2 K
L5 5.6 · L10 5.6 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.6 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season24 games
58%over
14 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–76%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 23/24 | ||
| 96% | 23/24 | ||
| 79% | 19/24 | ||
| 4.5Current | 58% | 14/24 | |
| 38% | 9/24 | ||
| 25% | 6/24 | ||
| 8% | 2/24 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%7/11Low
Away54%7/13Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%13/23Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Sandy Alcantara has gone over 4.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 58% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 5.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 55.0%
Best Over
BetRivers+108
-6.5% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-143
-6.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+13.6%
Our model puts the over at 58.5% vs the market's no-vig 45.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.