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Los Angeles AngelsSebastián Rivero
#38 · C · 6-1 · 210 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jun 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListSebastián Rivero isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hand Surgery
- Est. return:
- Aug 4, 2026
Rivero played one rehab game in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League before being moved up to Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Tuesday. The catcher has been out since early June following left hamate bone surgery. It's not a given that Rivero will be returned to the Angels' roster once he's physically ready.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.5 H(×1.10 context)
L5 1.8 · L10 0.9 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
35%over
6 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%Season17 games
35%over
6 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 35% | 6/17 | |
| 18% | 3/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%2/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/6Medium
1 day40%2/5Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Yoán Moncada out · Right Knee Surgery+0.6 H when he sits
Without (9g)
1.0 H
44% over 0.5
With (8g)
0.4 H
25% over 0.5
Adam Frazier out · Right Elbow Inflammation+0.4 H when he sits
Without (9g)
0.9 H
33% over 0.5
With (8g)
0.5 H
38% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ MIA
Aug 7, 2026
26thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIA pitching allows 7.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sebastián Rivero has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 35% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 26th-most H of 30 teams (7.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Angel Stadium · Los Angeles Angels
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.