Loading…
Philadelphia PhilliesSeth Johnson
#52 · P · 6-1 · 205 lb · 28 games
Stats updated: Sep 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.4 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSeth Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
It's unclear how long the knee had been bothering Johnson, but he's expected to be ready to roll by the time spring training comes around. The right-handed reliever made 28 appearances between the Phillies and Athletics in 2026, finishing with a 5.88 ERA and 40:20 K:BB across 33.2 frames.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.5 K
L5 1.8 · L10 1.5 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season28 games
39%over
11 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 24%–58%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 21/28 | ||
| 1.5Current | 39% | 11/28 | |
| 14% | 4/28 | ||
| 14% | 4/28 | ||
| 0% | 0/28 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%6/15Medium
Away38%5/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day25%2/8Low
2 days60%3/5Low
3+ days42%5/12Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Seth Johnson has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 39% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies
neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 39%.