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Toronto Blue JaysShane Bieber
#57 · P · 6-3 · 200 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Aug 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListShane Bieber isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Sep 25, 2026
Bieber is scheduled to throw a side session Saturday, and the Blue Jays are hoping that the veteran right-hander can return if the team qualifies for the playoffs. Bieber continues to recover from right teres major inflammation that landed him on the 15-day injured list in late August.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
4.6 K
L5 4.4 · L10 4.2 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2011 games
64%over
7 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–85%Season11 games
64%over
7 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–85%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 82% | 9/11 | ||
| 3.5Current | 64% | 7/11 | |
| 36% | 4/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 9% | 1/11 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days70%7/10Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jonatan Clase out · Left Foot Plantar Fasciitis-0.5 K when he sits
Without (8g)
3.9 K
63% over 3.5
With (3g)
4.3 K
67% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Shane Bieber has gone over 3.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 64% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.