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Houston AstrosSpencer Arrighetti
#45 · P · 6-2 · 186 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jul 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 20/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
4.1 K
L5 3.8 · L10 4.7 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 15/17 | ||
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 5.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 18% | 3/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away30%3/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%6/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Carlos Correa out · Left Ankle Surgery-1.5 K when he sits
Without (13g)
4.8 K
38% over 5.5
With (4g)
6.3 K
50% over 5.5
Brice Matthews out · Left Knee Sprain-2.2 K when he sits
Without (3g)
3.3 K
33% over 5.5
With (14g)
5.5 K
43% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Spencer Arrighetti has gone over 5.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 41% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Daikin Park · Houston Astros
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.