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Cincinnati RedsSpencer Steer
#7 · 1B · 5-9 · 185 lb · 91 games
Stats updated: Jul 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListSpencer Steer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Wrist Sprain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The transaction clears a spot on the 40-man roster for Oswaldo Cabrera, who was claimed off waivers. Steer has been ramping up his activities recently as he works his way back from a partial tear of the tendon sheath in his wrist. He will be eligible for activation Sept. 25, but there's a chance Steer's season is over.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.5 H(×0.92 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.8 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season91 games
65%over
59 over · 32 under
High confidence95% CI 55%–74%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 65% | 59/91 | |
| 21% | 19/91 | ||
| 1% | 1/91 | ||
| 0% | 0/91 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%29/46Medium
Away67%30/45Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)70%44/63High
1 day57%13/23Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Blake Dunn out · Right Elbow Surgery
Without (59g)
0.8 H
63% over 0.5
With (32g)
0.9 H
69% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ ATL
Sep 22, 2026
25thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
ATL pitching allows 7.8 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Spencer Steer has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 65% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 25th-most H of 30 teams (7.8 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.