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Cincinnati RedsSpencer Steer
#7 · 1B · 5-9 · 185 lb · 91 games
Stats updated: Jul 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListSpencer Steer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Wrist Sprain
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2026
Steer suffered the injury on a swing during Sunday's game in St. Louis and was placed on the injured list Monday. The hope is that he can avoid surgery and the injury heals with rest, but it's no guarantee that will happen. A timeline for Steer's return likely won't be available until after the two-week shutdown.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.6 H(×1.06 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.8 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season91 games
65%over
59 over · 32 under
High confidence95% CI 55%–74%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 65% | 59/91 | |
| 21% | 19/91 | ||
| 1% | 1/91 | ||
| 0% | 0/91 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%29/46Medium
Away67%30/45Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)70%44/63High
1 day57%13/23Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Blake Dunn out · Right Elbow Surgery
Without (59g)
0.8 H
63% over 0.5
With (32g)
0.9 H
69% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ WSH
Aug 8, 2026
3rdof 30 in H allowed to hitters
WSH pitching allows 9.0 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 118 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Spencer Steer has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 65% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 3rd-most H of 30 teams (9.0 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.