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Atlanta BravesSpencer Strider
#99 · P · 6-0 · 195 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jun 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.8 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListSpencer Strider isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
After landing on the shelf June 13 due to right elbow inflammation, Strider met with Dr. Keith Meister and was prescribed a month of rest. He was expected to be re-evaluated over the All-Star break, but Atlanta hasn't provided a formal update on Strider's progress, and his locker got cleaned out during Atlanta's most recent homestand -- a strong sign that the club isn't expecting the right-hander back over the final two months of the regular season or in the playoffs. Strider labored through eight starts prior to going on the injured list, walking 12.8 percent of the batters he faced while pitching to a 5.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across 39 innings.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency36argues against it
Projection
5.2 K
L5 5.6 · L10 5.8 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.4 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 8 games, Spencer Strider has gone over 5.5 K 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Truist Park · Atlanta Braves
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.01)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.