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Kansas City RoyalsStephen Kolek
#32 · P · 6-3 · 210 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jul 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListStephen Kolek isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2028
The right-hander headed for a second opinion on his strained right forearm last week and is now set to go under the knife. The full scope of the procedure isn't clear, but if it's standard Tommy John surgery, Kolek will miss the rest of the season and will likely be sidelined for the entirety of the 2027 campaign.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.6 K
L5 3.0 · L10 3.4 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.6 · ceil 5.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 3.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home17%1/6Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Lane Thomas out · Left Side Strain+0.2 K when he sits
Without (4g)
3.5 K
25% over 3.5
With (6g)
3.3 K
50% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Stephen Kolek has gone over 3.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.