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Kansas City RoyalsStephen Kolek
#32 · P · 6-3 · 210 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jul 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListStephen Kolek isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Forearm Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 4, 2026
Kolek emerged out of his rehab start with Triple-A Omaha on July 18 with a right forearm strain, which prompted the Royals to transfer the right-hander to the 60-day injured list July 22. He's eligible to be activated from the IL in early September, but the Royals will have a better sense of Kolek's recovery timeline once he undergoes more tests.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.6 K
L5 3.0 · L10 3.4 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.6 · ceil 5.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 3.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home17%1/6Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Stephen Kolek has gone over 3.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.