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Cleveland GuardiansTanner Bibee
#28 · P · 6-2 · 205 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
5.2 K
L5 5.2 · L10 4.7 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season24 games
46%over
11 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–65%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 23/24 | ||
| 88% | 21/24 | ||
| 58% | 14/24 | ||
| 4.5Current | 46% | 11/24 | |
| 25% | 6/24 | ||
| 21% | 5/24 | ||
| 13% | 3/24 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%7/14Low
Away40%4/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%10/23Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Tanner Bibee has gone over 4.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Progressive Field · Cleveland Guardians
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 4.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
BetRivers-103
-1.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+100
+0.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+1.2%
Our model puts the over at 51.0% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.