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Chicago White SoxTanner Murray
#41 · LF · 6-1 · 190 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Apr 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.5 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListTanner Murray isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Surgery
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2026
The move opens up a spot on the 40-man roster for Randal Grichuk, who signed a one-year major-league deal with the White Sox on Monday. Murray suffered a left shoulder dislocation and fracture while making a diving catch in left field against the Nationals in late April. His recovery timeline was initially set at 4-to-6 months, which means he won't be available to return until at least late August.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.99 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 0% | 0/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%4/4Low
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs CLE
Aug 7, 2026
20thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CLE pitching allows 8.0 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tanner Murray has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 20th-most H of 30 teams (8.0 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rate Field · Chicago White Sox
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.06)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.