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Los Angeles DodgersTarik Skubal
#29 · P · 6-3 · 240 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Aug 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 7.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 7.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 24/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency48neutral
Projection
7.4 K
L5 7.6 · L10 7.7 · med 8.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.2 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 15/17 | ||
| 76% | 13/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 7.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 12% | 2/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Dalton Rushing out · Right Elbow Strain-1.4 K when he sits
Without (5g)
6.2 K
20% over 7.5
With (12g)
7.6 K
50% over 7.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Tarik Skubal has gone over 7.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 41% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles Dodgers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.08)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (7.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.