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Colorado RockiesTomoyuki Sugano
#11 · P · 6-1 · 227 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Japan
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Hot overFireFactor 58/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
3.1 K
L5 3.0 · L10 3.3 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season20 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 20/20 | ||
| 90% | 18/20 | ||
| 2.5Current | 65% | 13/20 | |
| 30% | 6/20 | ||
| 20% | 4/20 | ||
| 0% | 0/20 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home70%7/10Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%12/19Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Tomoyuki Sugano has gone over 2.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 65% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Coors Field · Colorado Rockies
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.20, HR ×1.16)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.