Loading…
Chicago CubsTrent Thornton
#49 · P · 6-0 · 190 lb · 48 games
Stats updated: Sep 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListTrent Thornton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Ankle Soreness
- Est. return:
- Sep 27, 2026
Thornton was the last of five Chicago pitchers to take the mound Thursday, working the top of the 11th inning in a 2-2 tie. The righty picked up the win when Pete Crow-Armstrong stole third base in the bottom of the 11th, then came around to score on a throwing error. Thornton has been solid this year with a 2.78 ERA across 35.2 innings, but he's in a crowded back-end mix that features Jacob Webb and the newly acquired Ryan Zeferjahn. Daniel Palencia (elbow) should also be back from the injured list in the near future.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)43neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 K
L5 1.0 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season48 games
50%over
24 over · 24 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–64%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 50% | 24/48 | |
| 15% | 7/48 | ||
| 0% | 0/48 | ||
| 0% | 0/48 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home46%11/24Medium
Away54%13/24Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)40%4/10Low
1 day27%3/11Low
2 days67%10/15Medium
3+ days64%7/11Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Trent Thornton has gone over 0.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.