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Minnesota TwinsTrevor Larnach
#9 · LF · 6-3 · 223 lb · 110 games
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListTrevor Larnach isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Wrist Sprain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Larnach's season is expected to be over, and Alan Roden has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move. Larnach hasn't played since last Sunday, and he'll likely close the book on his 2026 season with a .269/.352/.436 slash line that includes 13 home runs, 48 RBI, 57 runs scored, two stolen bases and a 45:79 BB:K across 433 trips to the plate.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.9 H(×0.91 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season110 games
60%over
66 over · 44 under
High confidence95% CI 51%–69%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 60% | 66/110 | |
| 25% | 28/110 | ||
| 5% | 5/110 | ||
| 2% | 2/110 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%33/53Medium
Away58%33/57High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)64%44/69High
1 day54%15/28Medium
2 days33%2/6Low
3+ days83%5/6Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Byron Buxton out · Right Hip Surgery-0.2 H when he sits
Without (46g)
0.8 H
54% over 0.5
With (64g)
1.0 H
64% over 0.5
Kaelen Culpepper out · Left Hamstring Strain+0.3 H when he sits
Without (89g)
1.0 H
63% over 0.5
With (21g)
0.7 H
48% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ SF
Sep 22, 2026
12thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SF pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trevor Larnach has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 12th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Target Field · Minnesota Twins
neutral (runs ×0.99, HR ×0.98)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.