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Detroit TigersTroy Melton
#52 · P · 6-4 · 210 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Linepays more
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.7 K · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Injured ListInjured ListTroy Melton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Arm Soreness
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
While it's unfortunate that Melton's season will end with him on the IL, it's good news that he appears to have avoided any structural issues with his pitching arm. He had a 7.79 ERA in four September starts, so the fatigue could be something that's nagged at Melton for a little while. Even after the poor final month, Melton will finish with a 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 94:37 K:BB over 114.1 innings covering 20 starts for the Tigers.
Verdict
vs 6.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 17% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line28argues against it
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
4.4 K(×1.08 context)
L5 3.6 · L10 3.9 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
0%over
0 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%Last 2020 games
15%over
3 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 5%–36%Season20 games
15%over
3 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 5%–36%Situational splits
Over 6.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home11%1/9Medium
Away18%2/11Medium
Days since last game
3+ days16%3/19Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Wenceel Pérez out · Left Orbital Fracture+2.0 K when he sits
Without (17g)
5.0 K
18% over 6.5
With (3g)
3.0 K
0% over 6.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Troy Melton has gone over 6.5 K 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 15% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 3.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 54.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 45.5%
Best Over
Caesars-136
-5.5% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+110
-4.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-37.1%
Our model puts the over at 17.3% vs the market's no-vig 54.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 15%.