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Los Angeles DodgersTyler Glasnow
#31 · P · 6-8 · 225 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: May 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 7.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListTyler Glasnow isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Spasms
- Est. return:
- Aug 21, 2026
Glasnow has been shelved since May 8 due to lower back spasms, but assuming he checks out fine following Wednesday's live session, he'll move on to the final stage of the recovery process. Given the length of his absence, Glasnow will likely require at least three rehab starts to build up his pitch count before he's deemed ready to rejoin the Dodgers rotation. Prior to landing on the shelf, Glasnow turned in a 2.72 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 49:13 K:BB across 39.2 innings over seven starts.
Verdict
vs 7.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency45neutral
Projection
6.6 K
L5 6.8 · L10 7.0 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.2 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 7.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Dalton Rushing out · Right Elbow Strain+0.6 K when he sits
Without (4g)
7.3 K
25% over 7.5
With (3g)
6.7 K
67% over 7.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 7 games, Tyler Glasnow has gone over 7.5 K 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles Dodgers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.08)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.