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Baltimore OriolesTyler O'Neill
#9 · RF · 5-9 · 200 lb · 58 games
Stats updated: Aug 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Canada
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.6 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListTyler O'Neill isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Strain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
O'Neill was eligible to come off the 10-day injured list this week, but that isn't going to happen, as he'll miss more time with his strained right rotator cuff. The 31-year-old has had an injury-marred two seasons in Baltimore. After appearing in just 54 games last season, O'Neill has been limited to 85 appearances in 2026. He has a miserable .206/.296/.383 slash line across 139 career games with the Orioles.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.5 H(×0.99 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season58 games
55%over
32 over · 26 under
High confidence95% CI 42%–67%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 55% | 32/58 | |
| 9% | 5/58 | ||
| 0% | 0/58 | ||
| 0% | 0/58 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%14/28Medium
Away60%18/30Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%13/26Medium
1 day50%5/10Low
2 days43%3/7Low
3+ days71%10/14Medium
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jackson Holliday out · Left Wrist Inflammation
Without (24g)
0.6 H
54% over 0.5
With (34g)
0.7 H
56% over 0.5
Blaze Alexander out · Not Specified Back Soreness+0.1 H when he sits
Without (28g)
0.7 H
61% over 0.5
With (30g)
0.6 H
50% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs TOR
Sep 21, 2026
23rdof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TOR pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 155 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler O'Neill has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. TOR has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 23rd-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.