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Cincinnati RedsVincent Johnson
#63 · 2B · 6-0 · 190 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.3 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsCool underFireFactor 20/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.4 H(×1.09 context)
L5 0.3 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Aug 8, 2026
3rdof 30 in H allowed to hitters
WSH pitching allows 9.0 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 118 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 3 games, Vincent Johnson has gone over 0.5 H 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 3rd-most H of 30 teams (9.0 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.