Detroit Tigers

Wenceel Pérez Strikeouts (batter)

Stats updated: Jun 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Wenceel Pérez has gone over 0.5 SO in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: Dominican Republic
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksStrikeouts (batter) · season avg 0.6 SO · our line

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Injured ListWenceel Pérez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Orbital Fracture
Est. return:: Aug 16, 2026

Perez suffered a left orbital fracture June 16, when he struck himself below the eye with an exercise band while participating in a pregame workout. He's been cleared to start a rehab assignment, and if all goes well in the minors, then Perez should be back with the Tigers by mid-August. He had a .594 OPS with three steals, seven home runs and 17 RBI over 175 plate appearances prior to his injury.

Verdict

vs 0.5 SOStrikeouts (batter)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.6 SO(×0.97 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2020 games

55%over

11 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%

Season45 games

53%over

24 over · 21 under

Medium confidence95% CI 39%–67%

Alternate lines — Strikeouts (batter) (SO)

SO over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SO line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	53%	24/45
	7%	3/45
	2%	1/45
	0%	0/45

Last 20 games — SO per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SO by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home45%10/22Medium

Away61%14/23Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)56%15/27Medium

1 day33%3/9Low

2 days67%4/6Low

3+ days100%1/1Low

With a teammate out

How this SO line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kerry Carpenter out · Right Foot Plantar Fasciitis-0.1 SO when he sits

Without (20g)

0.6 SO

50% over 0.5

With (25g)

0.7 SO

56% over 0.5

Next matchup — @ SF

Aug 8, 2026

26thof 30 in SO allowed to hitters

SF pitching allows 7.6 SO per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 116 games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Wenceel Pérez has gone over 0.5 SO 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. SF has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 26th-most SO of 30 teams (7.6 per game). His game-to-game SO have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.