Seattle Mariners

Will Wilson Runs

Stats updated: Apr 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Will Wilson has gone over 0.5 R in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 2 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRuns · season avg 0.5 R · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

Injured ListWill Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Thumb Fracture
Est. return:: Aug 6, 2026

Wilson began his rehab assignment with Everett last Friday and moved up to Tacoma on Tuesday. He's been shelved since early May with a fractured left thumb and could need a few more rehab games before the Mariners consider returning him to their active roster.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RRuns

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line38argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.5 R(×0.95 context)

L5 0.5 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.2 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Runs (R)

R over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate R line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — R per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 R by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs TB

Aug 8, 2026

23rdof 30 in R allowed to hitters

TB pitching allows 4.1 R per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 115 games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Will Wilson has gone over 0.5 R 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 23rd-most R of 30 teams (4.1 per game). His game-to-game R have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.