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Miami MarlinsXavier Edwards
#9 · 2B · 5-9 · 175 lb · 137 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Day-to-dayDay-to-dayConfirm Xavier Edwards's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Thumb
Edwards will miss a second straight start due to a thumb injury that he picked up during Saturday's game against the Padres. While he recovers, Jared Serna will start at the keystone and bat ninth.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsCold underFireFactor 55/100· model 74% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.8 H(×1.00 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season137 games
27%over
37 over · 100 under
High confidence95% CI 20%–35%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 101/137 | ||
| 1.5Current | 27% | 37/137 | |
| 4% | 5/137 | ||
| 1% | 1/137 | ||
| 0% | 0/137 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home26%18/68High
Away28%19/69High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)27%31/114High
1 day33%6/18Medium
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days0%0/2Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Owen Caissie out · Right Back Fracture-0.2 H when he sits
Without (42g)
0.9 H
21% over 1.5
With (95g)
1.1 H
29% over 1.5
Next matchup — @ CHC
Sep 23, 2026
14thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CHC pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Xavier Edwards has gone over 1.5 H 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 27% across the full season. CHC has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 14th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 27%.