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Los Angeles AngelsYoán Moncada Stolen Bases
Stats updated: May 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Yoán Moncada has gone over 0.5 SB in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- Cuba
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Stolen Bases · season avg 0.0 SB · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListYoán Moncada isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Aug 21, 2026
Moncada underwent right knee surgery in mid-June and was consequently placed on the 60-day IL. While the veteran third baseman is expected to return this season, a definitive timeline isn't clear given his inability to resume baseball activities to this point. Denzer Guzman and Vaughn Grissom have been sharing duties at the hot corner for the Angels of late.
Verdict
vs 0.5 SBStolen BasesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 93% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line93supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.2 SB(×0.94 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
5%over
1 over · 19 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–24%Season32 games
3%over
1 over · 31 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–16%Alternate lines — Stolen Bases (SB)
SB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 3% | 1/32 | |
| 0% | 0/32 | ||
| 0% | 0/32 | ||
| 0% | 0/32 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home7%1/14Medium
Away0%0/18High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)6%1/18High
1 day0%0/8Medium
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days0%0/2Low
With a teammate out
How this SB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Sebastián Rivero out · Left Hand Surgery
Without (26g)
0.0 SB
4% over 0.5
With (6g)
0.0 SB
0% over 0.5
Adam Frazier out · Right Elbow Inflammation
Without (10g)
0.0 SB
0% over 0.5
With (22g)
0.0 SB
5% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ MIA
Aug 8, 2026
3rdof 30 in SB allowed to hitters
MIA pitching allows 0.9 SB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Yoán Moncada has gone over 0.5 SB 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 3% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 3rd-most SB of 30 teams (0.9 per game). His game-to-game SB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Angel Stadium · Los Angeles Angels
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 3%.
More Yoán Moncada research
Yoán Moncada — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Moncada Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Moncada Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Moncada RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Moncada Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.