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Philadelphia PhilliesZachary Wheeler
#45 · P · 6-4 · 195 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Aug 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 7.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency36argues against it
Projection
6.9 K
L5 8.4 · L10 7.8 · med 8.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.4 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 17/18 | ||
| 78% | 14/18 | ||
| 67% | 12/18 | ||
| 6.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 28% | 5/18 | ||
| 17% | 3/18 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away36%4/11Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%9/17Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Zachary Wheeler has gone over 6.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies
neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.