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Minnesota VikingsAaron Jones Sr.
#33 · RB · 5' 10" · 208 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- UTEP
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 54.6 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAaron Jones Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Wet and windy conditions at Soldier Field put a damper on both teams' passing attacks, but Jones was able to keep the Minnesota offense moving on the ground. The veteran back saw a big workload with Jordan Mason (thumb) on IR, but Jones did briefly leave the game to tend to a minor knee injury in the fourth quarter. Assuming the knee doesn't linger, he figures to be busy again in a Week 3 road trip to Tampa Bay.
Verdict
vs 68.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
67.1 RUSH YDS(×1.07 context)
L5 63.4 · L10 55.4 · med 50.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 35.2 · ceil 77.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Season12 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 68.5Current | 42% | 5/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 |
Situational splits
Over 68.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Next matchup — @ TB
Sep 27, 2026
28thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
TB allows 32.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 68.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (32.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 27.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.