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Minnesota VikingsAaron Jones Sr.
#33 · RB · 5' 10" · 208 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Dec 25, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- UTEP
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 51.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAaron Jones Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jones is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he carried the ball 132 times for 548 yards and two touchdowns while adding 28 catches on 41 targets for 199 yards and a score in 12 games. With Mason (758 rushing yards and six TDs on 159 carries plus 14 catches for 51 yards in 16 contests) still around, another RB timeshare -- one that favors Jones in PPR formats -- looms in 2026, with Claiborne a bigger threat to Jones' snaps on passing downs.
Verdict
vs 50.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
59.3 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 50.2 · L10 51.0 · med 50.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 31.8 · ceil 76.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 50.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
Last matchup — vs DET
Dec 25, 2025
11thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
DET allows 50.1 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 30 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 50.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (50.1 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 25.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.