New York Jets

Adonai Mitchell Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Adonai Mitchell has gone over 2.5 REC in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.2 REC · our line

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OutAdonai Mitchell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mitchell was, specifically, Smith's most-targeted pass-catcher during Tuesday's practice, in which the Jets ran drills to simulate high-pressure situations such as third-and-long. Rosenblatt also notes that Mitchell and Smith connected frequently during 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills in May. New York acquired Mitchell via trade with the Colts last November, and across eight games with the team he secured 25 of 59 targets for 312 yards and two scores, including an 8-102-1 performance against the Falcons in Week 13. With the Jets' offense seemingly in position to take a step forward with Smith under center in 2026, Mitchell will have an opportunity to capitalize on a starting role alongside Garrett Wilson and rookie first-round pick Omar Cooper.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

3.7 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 4.2 · L10 3.2 · med 3.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.6 · ceil 4.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 109 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Last 209 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Season9 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	9/9
	78%	7/9
2.5Current	56%	5/9
	22%	2/9
	22%	2/9
	22%	2/9

Last 9 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days63%5/8Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Geno Smith out-0.3 REC when he sits

Without (3g)

3.0 REC

33% over 2.5

With (6g)

3.3 REC

67% over 2.5

Last matchup — vs NE

Dec 28, 2025

27thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Adonai Mitchell has gone over 2.5 REC 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.