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Carolina PanthersAJ Dillon
#28 · RB · 6' 0" · 247 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boston College
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 12.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAJ Dillon isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
All of Dillon's touches came during Carolina's last drive of the game, when Chicago was leading by 22 points with less than four minutes remaining and more than content to let the Panthers run out the clock. Chuba Hubbard and 2024 second-rounder Jonathon Brooks project to remain clearly ahead of Dillon for carries going into Week 2.
Verdict
vs 11.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
11.1 RUSH YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 11.2 · L10 12.1 · med 12.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.6 · ceil 18.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 11.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ CLE
Sep 27, 2026
17thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CLE allows 44.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, AJ Dillon has gone over 11.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (44.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.