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Jacksonville JaguarsAmeer Abdullah
#26 · RB · 5' 8" · 203 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Nebraska
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 7.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAmeer Abdullah isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Abdullah, who is now heading into his age-33 campaign, suited up for 13 regular-season games with Indianapolis in 2025, totaling 14 carries for 60 yards and one touchdown and 16 catches for 99 yards (on 17 targets). He also handled 137 snaps on special teams for the Colts and racked up 563 kick-return yards. The veteran will compete with DeeJay Dallas and LeQuint Allen to carve out a similar role with the Jaguars.
Verdict
vs 5.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line39argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
7.6 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 7.5 · med 5.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.4 · ceil 11.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Last matchup — @ HOU
Jan 4, 2026
26thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
HOU allows 44.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Ameer Abdullah has gone over 5.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (44.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.